Bitcoin briefly touched $59,930, its lowest price since October 2024, and analysts have reacted more measuredly than the market panic might suggest. Rather than calling it a catastrophe, researchers at Kaiko are framing it as something more familiar: the midpoint of a normal bear cycle.
That reframe matters. Because how you interpret a 32% decline from recent highs determines everything about how you respond to it.
The Post‑Halving Hangover Is Real
Every Bitcoin halving follows a similar script. When there is a supply shock, prices go up and retail buyers rush in. But then, often over the next year, the market goes back down as the excitement wears off and weak hands leave. According to Kaiko Research, that's exactly what's happening now. The post‑halving euphoria phase appears to be over, and the market has transitioned into what analysts describe as a typical bear period.
Historical patterns suggest this stage lasts roughly 12 months before accumulation quietly resumes. If that timeline holds, the current pain has a ceiling — even if the floor isn't fully established yet.
The Data Behind the Decline
This isn't just a price story. The on‑chain and derivatives data paint a consistent picture of a market that's pulling back across the board.
Aggregate spot trading volume across the ten largest centralized exchanges dropped roughly 30%, falling from around $1 trillion in October 2025 to $700 billion in November. Combined futures open interest for Bitcoin and Ethereum declined from $29 billion to $25 billion in a single week — a 14% drop that reflects traders actively unwinding leveraged positions, not just sitting on the sidelines.
When volume shrinks and open interest falls together, it typically signals deleveraging rather than a directional bet. The market isn't necessarily crashing — it's digesting.
Where Does the Bottom Actually Sit?
This is the question nobody can answer cleanly, and the honest analysts aren't pretending otherwise.
The $60,000 level carries technical significance because it roughly aligns with Bitcoin's 200‑week moving average, a metric that has historically acted as long‑term support. But Kaiko flags a complication: a 52% retracement from the all‑time high near $126,000 is actually shallow by historical standards. Previous bear markets saw drawdowns of 60% to 68%, which would put a potential cycle bottom somewhere in the $40,000 to $50,000 range.
That's not a prediction — it's a historical range. And Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, makes a useful distinction here: the factors that drove Bitcoin to $126,000 in the first place haven't disappeared. Institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and macro tailwinds haven't reversed. That complicates the bear case.
What This Means for Investors
The oversold signals appearing on multiple timeframes suggest a rebound is probable. The question, as Young put it, is timing rather than likelihood.
For long‑term holders, the pattern looks familiar. For traders watching short‑term levels, $60,000 is the line that matters — and whether it holds or breaks will likely define the next chapter of this cycle.
