Bitcoin started the week off on Monday with real momentum. It jumped to $82,380, which was its highest level in weeks. This was caused by ETF inflows for six weeks in a row and cautious optimism that peace talks between the US and Iran might finally be moving forward. Then the news came out.
In response to Iran's most recent offer to end the fighting, President Trump said it was "totally unacceptable." Masoud Pezeshkian, the president of Iran, replied that his country would never see talks as giving up. The relief rally ended in just a few hours. The price of Bitcoin fell below $81,000. Ethereum fell below its exponential moving average of 100 days. A short time ago, XRP pushed hard against the important $1.50 resistance level. It then backed off to $1.44.
The move was quick but steady, which shows where crypto now stands in the world's financial system. This is no longer a case of niche assets responding to niche catalysts. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP are acting like mature macroassets. Their prices go up and down with the same geopolitical currents that affect oil, stocks, and foreign exchange.
The Geopolitical Chokehold
This picture's background helps show how sensitive it is. The conflict between the US and Iran got worse in late February when the US and Iran collaborated on Operation Epic Fury, which killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and hit Iranian military infrastructure. This has made it harder for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and caused energy prices to rise sharply. Since the price of Brent crude has gone above $100 per barrel, central banks have been reluctant to cut interest rates. This has made it harder for people to get cash, which has historically led to crypto bull runs. Every diplomatic failure makes that squeeze last longer.
As of April, there was a fragile ceasefire that allowed markets around the world to carefully price in a possible peace agreement. The high‑level talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad earlier this month were seen as a real turning point. When Trump turned down Iran's most recent terms, that story fell apart almost instantly, and risk assets around the world felt it.
Crypto, as one of the most sentiment‑sensitive corners of global markets, absorbed the blow quickly and visibly.
What the Charts Are Actually Saying
The bigger picture for each major asset, on the other hand, is more complicated than Monday's drop makes it seem.
The technical state of Bitcoin is still good. It is still trading above both its 50‑day EMA, which is close to $76,018 and its 100‑day EMA, which is $76,546, at $80,845. On a daily chart, the RSI is around 61, which means it is bullish but not more than 61. The MACD histogram is slightly positive, which shows that the momentum hasn't been broken. The 200‑day EMA near $81,982 is the next important level of resistance to the upside. Below, a group of supports, including the SuperTrend line at $75,648 and both moving averages, provides a strong barrier against a deeper drop.
When it comes to technology, Ethereum has the biggest problem of the three. ETH fell below its 100‑day moving average (EMA) last week because of small inflows from exchange‑traded funds (ETFs). It needs a big event to make its bullish case strong again. It would help a lot if people were willing to take on more risk again in the markets. This probably needs to happen after the situation in the Middle East calms down.
It's possible that XRP's situation is the most interesting. The token has taken back both its 50‑period EMA and the Bollinger middle band around $1.41, and its MACD histogram is still slightly positive. These are signs that the upside pressure is building, not fading. The important level is still $1.50, which is also the 100‑period exponential moving average (EMA). If that break lasts, it will be possible to get to the 200‑period EMA, which is close to $1.71. Institutional flows support the longer‑term case: total inflows into XRP spot ETFs have now reached $1.32 billion, and net assets under management are an average of $1.12 billion. This is a strong sign of support from professional investors.
Looking at the Big Picture
In the last two months, Bitcoin has gained almost 18%. It gained about 12% in April alone, which was its best monthly performance since early 2025, and then another 6% to reach its current level.
It is now worth about 36% less than its all‑time high of $126,000 in October 2025. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have had net inflows for six weeks in a row, which means they are taking in more newly mined Bitcoin than miners are making. The change in supply after it was cut in half and the rise in institutional demand have created a structural floor that daily geopolitical instability has not been able to break through yet.
At this point, it doesn't matter if Bitcoin tests $75,000 or $85,000 next week, according to one market analyst. What matters is that demand is quietly growing behind the noise.
It's a sharp irony. Bitcoin used to be seen as a geopolitical hedge, a kind of "digital gold" that couldn't be destroyed by war between states. Today, it goes up when people are hopeful about peace and down when war gets worse, just like any other risky asset. It's not clear if that means the market is mature or just that a lot of institutional money is now flowing through it.
It's clear that the way to $85,000 and more now goes at least in part through the diplomatic back channels between Tehran and Washington as well as through Wall Street.
